Predicting the 2026 Academy Awards
Photo Collage by Samantha Rosinski, Staff Photographer
The text messages between features and entertainment assistant editor Izzy Betz and features and entertainment staff writer Ben Price consist mostly of posts from Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, Discussing Film and Film Updates about film news. Of anyone at the Dodge College of Film and Media Arts to predict what will happen at the 2026 Academy Awards, Betz and Price are the most tuned in and yet the most worried.
This article has been a long time coming. We (Betz and Price, the Oscar heads, if you will) have been curating these predictions for a couple of weeks — but the industry keeps throwing us curveballs. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride” and Laika’s new stop-motion film “Wildwood” were pushed back to mid-2026. The vampire flick “Sinners” from director Ryan Coogler is a hit among critics and audiences. The “One Battle After Another” trailer looks really good (Betz was doubtful, but Price knew it would have the sauce).
There have also been plenty of structural changes to both the telecast and the voting process in recent weeks. A casting award has been added to the run of show. A stunt design award is being added for the 2027 ballot. The Academy has also stated that members will not be able to access the ballots to vote unless they have watched all of the nominees in each respective category.
Below are our predictions for all of the major categories at the 2026 Academy Awards. Check back in with us on March 15, 2026 to see what we get right or terribly wrong!
BEST PICTURE
PICKS
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another” — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Bugonia”
“Michael”
Price’s Breakdown: There’s always a particular method to predicting Best Picture; certain studios and filmmakers tend to reappear year after year (like Focus Features, Neon, A24, etc.), and this year is no exception. We have a new “Avatar” film from James Cameron, a new “Wicked” film in the pipeline and a new film from Chloé Zhao, who earned a Best Picture trophy for her film “Nomadland.” Netflix continues their quest for the award with Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” (Good thing George Clooney isn’t on Twitter; there’s no chance of this being “Emilia Pérez” all over again), which has some strong buzz months ahead of its presumed debut at the fall film festivals.
At this moment, I will go ahead and predict “One Battle After Another” from director Paul Thomas Anderson to win the statue; it’s backed by a major studio and Anderson’s films have frequently been nominated, but have never won Best Picture. His latest has a great cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and is embracing VistaVision, a format of yesteryear that most recently helped propel Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” to Oscar glory. An overtly political blockbuster that dives into the tensions within our nation and the disparate ideologies clashing with one another from one of the most celebrated auteurs (and one of the most unsung on the Oscar stage), I think it will speak to the moment; it feels like it’s Anderson’s time to have true Oscar glory.
BEST ACTRESS
PICKS
Julia Roberts — “After the Hunt” — WINNER
Jesse Buckley — “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne — “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Renate Reinsve — “Sentimental Value”
Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked: For Good”
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Emma Stone — “Bugonia”
Jennifer Lawrence — “Die, My Love”
Zendaya — “The Drama”
Dakota Johnson — “Materialists”
Lily Gladstone — “The Memory Police”
Betz’s Breakdown: If we are thinking like The Academy, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility to re-nominate Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone for a second Best Actress faceoff this year. This year’s race is stacked, like it usually is, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone leading the pack in early reviews. That is, save for Byrne, who won Best Actress at this year’s Berlin Film Festival for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt” promises to be a major showcase for Roberts. She hasn’t been in a lead role on the big screen for years now. The same feels true for Buckley in Zhao’s “Hamnet,” albeit with a less developed on-screen oeuvre.
BEST ACTOR
PICKS
Jeremy Allen White — “Deliver Me from Nowhere”
Will Arnett — “Is This Thing On?”
Matthew McConaughey — “The Lost Bus”
Leonardo DiCaprio — “One Battle After Another”
Dwayne Johnson — “The Smashing Machine” — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Robert Pattinson — “The Drama”
Oscar Isaac — “Frankenstein”
George Clooney — “Jay Kelly”
Tom Hiddleston — “The Life of Chuck”
Timothee Chalamet — “Marty Supreme”
Jaafar Jackson — “Michael”
Michael B. Jordan — “Sinners”
Price’s Breakdown: Betz just does not believe that we live in a world where Johnson gets a nomination for “The Smashing Machine,” but I’m confident that no one loves a shocking makeup transformation for a major star more than The Academy. He may face stiff competition from White’s take on Bruce Springsteen and someone who’s no stranger to a nomination: DiCaprio, in his first collaboration with Anderson.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PICKS
Ayo Edebiri — “After The Hunt” — WINNER
Emily Watson — “Hamnet”
Laura Dern — “Is This Thing On?”
America Ferrera — “The Lost Bus”
Teyana Taylor — “One Battle After Another”
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Jennifer Lopez — “Kiss of the Spider Woman”
Greta Lee — “Late Fame”
Regina Hall — “One Battle After Another”
Glenn Close — “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
Ariana Grande — “Wicked: For Good”
Price’s Breakdown: Although one would assume that “Wicked: For Good” will surge in all the same categories that the first film did, I’m skeptical of Grande’s inclusion, especially given Zoe Saldaña’s stranglehold of that category through nearly every precursor all the way to Oscar night, her chances being re-recognized feel diminished given she didn't win this past year. Close could very well earn her ninth(!) nomination (with no wins!) for the third star-studded “Knives Out” mystery from Rian Johnson. I have a hunch that America Ferrera will be nominated once again for her role in Greengrass’ “The Lost Bus,” just two years after her “Barbie” performance, which was anchored by a monologue that will no doubt stand the test of time and may help her get another nod here. Given her deluge of notable roles and winning personality, I foresee the award going to Edebiri (who will surely nail campaigning for the prize when the time comes), who is heading into dramatic territory with Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PICKS
Andrew Garfield — “After the Hunt”
Jeremy Strong — “Deliver Me from Nowhere”
Adam Sandler — “Jay Kelly” — WINNER
Colman Domingo — “Michael”
Sean Penn — “One Battle After Another”
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Joe Alwyn — “Hamnet”
Jeffrey Wright — “Highest 2 Lowest”
Bradley Cooper — “Is This Thing On?”
Stellan Skarsgård — “Sentimental Value”
Delroy Lindo — “Sinners”
Price’s Breakdown: After being cruelly denied any kind of recognition for his all-timer of a performance in the Safdie Brothers’ “Uncut Gems,” I think Sandler’s chances with The Academy will turn with his work in Noah Baumbach’s latest film, “Jay Kelly.” The buzz is there, Sandler is beloved, he’s been very public recently after appearances on the SNL 50th anniversary special and this year’s Oscars telecast and he stars in “Happy Gilmore 2” this summer, which would take him right into the maw of awards season. I see his path from here to the stage with a statue in hand as clear as day.
DIRECTING
PICKS
“After The Hunt” — Guadagnino
“Hamnet” — Zhao
“Is This Thing On?” — Bradley Cooper
“The Lost Bus” — Greengrass
“One Battle After Another” — Anderson — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” — James Cameron
“Highest 2 Lowest” — Spike Lee
“Jay Kelly” — Noah Baumbach
“The Life of Chuck” — Mike Flanagan
“No Other Choice” — Park Chan-wook
“Sentimental Value” –- Joachim Trier
“Sinners” — Ryan Coogler
Betz’s Breakdown: This category is stacked. Zhao is back for the win with a story about the greatest playwright ever. PTA is coming in hot with a DiCaprio-led Hall of Famer, and the film bros are spreading the PTA-and-DiCaprio word far and wide. This may be Guadagnino’s most mainstream movie, one that could finally get him the recognition he deserves. The Academy loves Cooper. Greengrass is back with not another Jason Bourne movie, but a film about the 2018 California wildfires that will surely hit close to home this next award season.
You may be starting to think, where are all “The Phoenician Scheme” nominations for Wes Anderson? The Academy, at least in our eyes, has never loved Anderson. While he won Best Live Action Short Film for “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” in 2024, we just don’t see the Academy loving “The Phoenician Scheme” more than some of the other films in the running this year. Anderson and his acolytes (The Andersonians? We don’t know what to call ourselves), you deserve better.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
PICKS
“Animal Farm” — Andy Serkis
“The Bad Guys 2” — Pierre Perifel
“Elio” — Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Madeline Sharafian — WINNER
“In Your Dreams” — Alex Woo
“Zootopia 2” — Jared Bush and Byron Howard
Betz’s Breakdown: This year's race comes down to Disney’s two animated feature films: “Zootopia 2” and “Elio.” “Wildwood” was in the running (and I predicted it to win) before it was pushed back to a 2026 release. I have a soft spot for children’s science fiction and would have had to choose between “Elio” and “Wildwood;” with “Wildwood” out of the race, I think “Elio” is taking the cake this year.
CASTING
PICKS
“After the Hunt” — Jessica Ronane
“Sinners” — Francine Maisler
“One Battle After Another” — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” — Mary Vernieu
“Warfare” — Kharmel Cochrane — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Highest 2 Lowest” — Kim Coleman
“Jay Kelly” — Douglas Aibel and Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” — Jennifer Venditti
“Wicked: For Good” — Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey
“Deliver Me from Nowhere” — Francine Maisler
Betz’s Breakdown: Casting is a new category coming to the 98th Academy Awards, and one we can’t really put our finger on yet. The new “Knives Out” installment seems to be leading the pack right now, as the internet always gets excited when the castings for that franchise are released; those films have thrived on crafting star-studded ensembles for the ages. “Deliver Me from Nowhere” will surely get a nomination for putting White in as Bruce Springsteen. “One Battle After Another” has been rallying an eclectic group of some of the best actors we have in this industry — from Regina Hall to Benicio Del Toro — into one PTA film. “Warfare” is every single young hot male actor you have seen in Hollywood in one movie, who sacrifice their onscreen innocence to portray the harsh realities of war. “After the Hunt” is self-explanatory, with Roberts, Garfield and Edebiri. Even our honorable mentions have some kick to them, but we will just have to wait and see who gets on the nomination list.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
PICKS
“After the Hunt” — Malik Hassan
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” — Russell Carpenter
“Deliver Me from Nowhere” — Masanobu Takayanagi
“One Battle After Another” — Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson
“Sinners” – Autumn Durald Arkapaw — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Bugonia” — Robbie Ryan
“F1” — Claudio Miranda
“Frankenstein” — Dan Lausten
“Hamnet” — Łukasz Żal
“Jay Kelly” — Linus Sandgren
“Marty Supreme” — Darius Khondiji
Price’s Breakdown: Best Cinematography is a category that, in recent years, has favored scope and using the tools of the past as well as the tools of the cutting edge. Big cinematic swings from war movies (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) to sci-fi epics (“Dune”) and the employment of formats like IMAX (“Oppenheimer”) and VistaVision (“The Brutalist”) have won the award in recent years. Thinking about that sense of the grandiose with this year’s crop, I’m inclined to lean towards “One Battle After Another,” which was shot on VistaVision a la “The Brutalist,” but Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work on “Sinners” takes the award for me. Arkapaw’s work makes her the first female cinematographer to shoot on IMAX and cements her as a major force in the space that is catching my eye. Arkapaw’s camerawork harkens back to the Mississippi Delta of the 1930s but on an IMAX-sized canvas; it’d be a worthy and opportune time to honor the film that looks to continue to dominate the box office and the discourse.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
PICKS
“After the Hunt” — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“Bugonia” — Jerskin Fendrix
“F1” — Hans Zimmer
“One Battle After Another” — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” — Ludwig Göransson — WINNER
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Ann Lee”— Daniel Blumberg
“The Ballad of a Small Player” — Volker Bertelmann
“Frankenstein”— Alexandre Desplat
“In The Blink of An Eye”— Thomas Newman
“Mother Mary” — Daniel Hart
“Train Dreams”— Bryce Dessner
“Wicked: For Good”— John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
Price’s Breakdown: The category is shaping up to be full of heavyweights and former winners. I can already hear the triumphant anthems of victory in “F1” (I need that movie in my veins as soon as possible) as Brad Pitt drives a car at frightening speeds. Reznor and Ross will provide the sonic pulse for Guadagnino’s “After The Hunt” after their horrific snub for their virtuosic work on “Challengers” this past year. I think The Academy, like in the Best Cinematography category, will choose to honor one of Ryan Coogler’s key collaborators in composer Göransson (who’s won twice already!). His work on “Sinners” speaks for itself, and with it being Coogler’s most pointedly musical film yet, his work does even more heavy lifting, intertwining with the film’s many blues songs that punctuate the vampiric violence.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
PICKS
“Deliver Me from Nowhere” — Scott Cooper
“Hamnet” — Zhao
“Highest 2 Lowest” — Alan Fox
“The Life of Chuck” — Flanagan — WINNER
“One Battle After Another” — Anderson
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Bugonia” — Will Tracey
“The Lost Bus” — Brad Ingelsby
“No Other Choice” — Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye and Don McKellar
“Train Dreams” — Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley
“Wicked: For Good” — Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox
Betz’s Breakdown: I am extremely biased in this category because I think “The Life of Chuck” is about to be the greatest movie of all time. It is the most Betz movie I have watched a trailer for in a long time. I wanted to nominate it in many more categories, but Price has made me second-guess the power of Hiddleston and science fiction. The other potential winner for me here is “Hamnet,” adapted from a best-selling book about one of the greatest writers of the human race — and we know The Academy loves to see that shit (Exhibit A: “Shakespeare in Love” winning seven Oscars in 1999). I am sticking with my gut and predicting “The Life of Chuck,” even though I think I will be very wrong.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
PICKS
“After the Hunt” — Nora Garrett
“Is This Thing On?” — Will Arnett and Mark Chappell
“Jay Kelly” — Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer
“Sentimental Value” — Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier — WINNER
“Sorry, Baby” — Eva Victor
HONORABLE MENTIONS
“Ella McCay” — James L. Brooks
“Marty Supreme” — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Materialists” — Celine Song
“Sinners” — Ryan Coogler
“Twinless” — James Sweeney
Price’s Breakdown: Baumbach has never won an Oscar and this may be the year his luck turns, but my feeling is that Trier (and co-writer Vogt) will break through here with “Sentimental Value.” Trier was nominated for his prior film, “The Worst Person in the World,” in this category. Still, the Academy has embraced international cinema more since then. I think the addition of familiar talent like Elle Fanning and Skarsgård, and a splashy debut at the Cannes Film Festival next month, will up Trier and the film’s profile. This is where it will get recognized.