A wave of uncertainty: What the El Niño brings to the California coast
Illustration by Sami Seyedhosseini, Photo Editor
Beach closures, flooding neighborhoods, rising temperatures and high surf advisories: What else does this ongoing “Super” El Niño storm have in store for the California coast, and how will it permanently alter these beaches?
The “Super” El Niño has been present since June 2026 and is expected to stay until early spring of 2027. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an extreme climate driver, influencing temperatures, atmospheric circulation and other weather events.
These storms bring Kelvin waves, which travel mostly beneath the ocean’s surface, moving warm water from the equatorial Pacific to the north and south coastlines of the Americas, causing elevated sea levels and increased erosion and flooding. According to NOAA, these waves can raise sea levels from six to 12 inches.
Specifically along the California coast, this storm has caused temporary rising sea levels, coastal erosion and severe flooding.
“We had a historic amount of large swell,” said Curren Aldrich, junior theatre performance major and San Diego lifeguard. “Which meant a historic amount of open water rescues.”
These ocean conditions have led to more lifeguards being added to the staff, who are working more diligently to protect beachgoers’ safety, according to Aldrich.
Aldrich also emphasized the importance of being vigilant when it comes to riptides, high surf and the overall beach conditions when visiting the beach. However, he also said he hopes the high surf doesn't discourage people from going to the beach and alter local beach culture.
“It's not that it's not becoming completely unsafe or unvisitable, just that we have to be more ready,” said Aldrich.
In Southern California, severe erosion has occurred on beaches such as Long Beach, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach, San Clemente, Carlsbad and Santa Monica, and is expected to only get worse throughout the winter.
Ramesh Singh, an environmental science professor, explained that the actual foundation of these coastal infrastructures is vital, particularly for surviving unpredictable weather patterns in the future.
“There is an ocean temperature increase, the ocean waves are coming to a very high peak and coastal erosion is taking place,” said Singh. “That is a threat to the people living along the coastal regions.”
A state of emergency proclamation was made by Gov. Gavin Newsom Sept. 21 ahead of winter storms with risk of heavy rainfall, landslides, debris flow and high tides, encouraging residents to prepare as early winter storms are already in effect.
In response to this, CA agencies are coordinating with local communities to help prepare for flooding and erosion, positioning resources as needed and listing the preparation steps.
Tropical cyclone Hurricane Marie affected the California coast in September; Orange County proclaimed a local emergency on Sept. 15 along with other individual coastal cities also declaring local emergencies due to severe erosion, high tides, destructive waves and damaged properties.
Storm Rachel impacted Southern California Oct. 9 through 11, bringing major destruction to the Long Beach Peninsula, damaging properties and leaving limited time to assess the damage with the constant high tides.
California State Parks announced Oct. 9 that parts of Crystal Cove State Park and San Onofre State Beach would be closed due to coastal erosion and damage from high surf, with the storm expected to heighten over the next few days.
Along with these beaches, on Oct. 9 city leaders in Newport Beach declared a local state of emergency due to Storm Rachel's cause of severe flooding, the water filling the streets, damaging infrastructure and stranding vehicles. This forced the closure of locations such as the Newport and Balboa piers.
Due to the storm's high tides and battering waves, one southbound lane on the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) was closed Oct. 13 due to a large crack on the bluffs supporting the freeway near Laguna Beach. There is currently no estimated reopening date.
As indicated by Aldrich, because of the rocks and cliffs present in San Diego, for example, the water becomes pressurized in little streams that hit the coast more directly and with a greater intensity. With that power comes the capacity to affect the coastline.
“This is going to change the game,” said Aldrich.
In the latest report from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen from November to January 2027. This increase is expected to rank amongst the strongest events in the historical record since the 1950s.
Singh also emphasized that this storm will affect not only the ocean and coast. These intense rainfalls can also cause other natural hazards such as debris flow, rockslides and mudslides.
In order to prepare, Californians are encouraged to sign up for alerts, be cognizant of the flood risks in their area and have an evacuation plan, emphasizing never to drive through flood water.
Through advanced forecasting, disaster-intelligence satellites and swiftwater vehicle deployments with new rescue vehicles, California offers several preparations for this winter's siege.
With the “Super” El Niño just getting started, Californians are urged to prepare and be vigilant in coastal communities, particularly as large swells and storms surge throughout the winter.