Chapman climbs while others brace for a fall during the nationwide enrollment cliff

Illustration by Lexi Forman, Cartoonist

Universities across the U.S. are facing a sharp reduction in student attendance, forcing many to cut budgets, lay off faculty and staff, eliminate programs and in some cases, close down completely. This so-called “enrollment cliff” is linked to the 2008 Recession, which caused a sharp decline in birth rates.

Universities at the highest risk of budget cuts, layoffs and closures from the decreased number of college-aged individuals entering academic institutions include small private non-profits, tuition-based liberal arts universities, regional public schools and schools located in the Northeast and Midwest.

According to an estimate from NPR, 442 of the nation's 1,700 private nonprofit colleges and universities are at risk of closing or having to merge specialty schools, such as combining separate academic units into a single larger one, within the next 10 years. 

Currently, Chapman University is defying these trends. Despite failing to meet enrollment goals in 2024, Chapman has stayed within its projected numbers during the 2026-2027 school year, and no programs have been cut to meet financial targets. Chapman's endowment has recently grown from 300 million dollars in 2016 to 1 billion dollars in 2026. 

“Chapman has benefited from consistent leadership, a clear sense of mission and growing national recognition,” said Bob Hitchcock, Chapman’s director of strategic communications.

In the 2026 edition of Best Colleges by the U.S. News & World Report, Chapman was ranked 110 out of 436 in the National Universities category. In 2025, the institution was positioned at 121. 

“Our continued momentum in national rankings is helping introduce Chapman to new markets and audiences, while the consistency of our leadership and mission allows us to remain focused on providing a high-quality experience for our students," said Hitchcock. 

While the University of Denver shares similar tuition levels to Chapman, enrollment drops have significantly affected its student population and national ranking. The university was forced to restructure college departments by combining some of its graduate programs, while 10% of staff members accepted buyouts after being laid off. 

Besides the Great Recession, another critical factor influencing enrollment drops comes from the declining population of incoming international students. 

A survey from the Institute of International Education (IIE) finds that nearly two-thirds of 585 collegiate institutions across the U.S. will likely see declining enrollment rates for the 2026-2027 school year. 

For the 2026 academic year, there was a report of an expected 111,000 fewer international students at U.S. colleges and universities, according to the National Association of Foreign Student Advisers (NAFSA), driven by revoked visas and concern with legal status. 

Syracuse University, an institution with similar levels of national recognition and admission rates to Chapman, has faced issues with meeting the student enrollment requirement due to its lack of international students. 

Syracuse’s 2026 entering class consists of five percent of international students. In 2024, 12% of international students enrolled in the institution. Overall enrollment fell by approximately three and a half percent last fall due to fewer graduate and international students enrolling. 

IIE also found that 59% of these colleges have received fewer applications from international students than in previous years. Despite these statistics, a large percentage of universities value international students for their diverse backgrounds and potential economic contributions to the workforce.

At Chapman, international student enrollment has been steady and is not a current concern. Instead, Chapman is focused on attracting out-of-state students to solidify its presence as a national university. 

A combination of declining birth rates following the 2008 recession and decreased international student enrollment has significantly contributed to the closures of institutions. Closures can prevent students from matriculating at another university and finishing their degree. 

Students may lose interest in pursuing their degree after losing previously earned credits. 

According to a study conducted by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO), less than half of students re-enroll at another institution after their previous university closes. 

Since many entry-level jobs require university degrees, students who do not continue their degrees may face reduced job opportunities. A study from Harvard Business School and the Burning Class Institute finds that only one in 700 prospective employees can secure entry-level jobs without undergraduate degrees. 

This enrollment cliff is not exclusive to the 2026-2027 school year. According to a study by Ruffalo Noel Levitz, there will be a second demographic cliff in 2039. At that point, educational institutions will have nearly two-thirds of a million fewer undergraduates than in the current fall semester. 

Enrollment cliffs may be inevitable, but Chapman continues to grow and prepare for the future. Chapman offers a wide variety of academic programs and engaging opportunities, and its Southern California location can lead to increased professional opportunities for students. 

“The breadth and quality of the Chapman experience remain central to our ability to attract students,” Hitchcock said. “When prospective students visit campus and interact with our students, faculty and community, they can see firsthand what makes Chapman a compelling place to learn and live.”