Classes return online as COVID-19 cases surge, vaccine timeline up in air

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced 40 counties moved to a more restrictive tier and a state-wide curfew will remain in place until Dec. 21. Graphic by HARRY LADA, Art Director

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Nov. 16 that 40 California counties will increase restrictions as COVID-19 cases rise across the nation and state. Various vaccines are currently being developed, but with Orange County now in the purple “widespread” tier of the county watchlist, Chapman University returned to limited in-person instruction Nov. 17.

After the first two weeks of Chapman’s community-wide testing plan, the university reported 29 total cases of COVID-19 Nov. 20. Of the infected students, two live in Chapman housing, 20 live off-campus and three attend classes at the Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. There are four additional cases of infected faculty and staff members.

Vaccines, coming from pharmaceutical and biotech companies like Pfizer and Moderna, are currently being tested and may be ready as early as next month, according to Jeff Goad, a Chapman School of Pharmacy chair and member of the California Department of Public Health’s COVID-19 Vaccine Drafting Guidelines Workgroup. 

Goad, who spoke regarding COVID-19 vaccines during a Nov. 16 town hall, also said “public distribution of a vaccine may begin as early as March or April.” Additionally, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have tested more than 90% effective.

Pfizer finished its third and final round of testing Nov. 18, but state and local officials report that they are billions of dollars short of the budget necessary to effectively distribute the vaccine.

Goad described vaccine distribution as a four-phase plan, beginning with high-risk health workers and first responders, people with significant comorbid and underlying conditions and older adults living in crowded settings. The second phase incorporates teachers and child care workers, critical workers, people with moderate underlying conditions and people who work in prisons and jails. 

The third will be aimed toward distribution to young adults, children and other workers, and the fourth will extend the vaccine to all others residing in the United States by the end of the next year, Goad said. 

Nationwide, COVID-19 cases have risen 59% over the past two weeks, as of Nov. 22. Additionally, deaths have risen by 62% and hospitalizations have risen by 50% in the same time period. In California, cases increased by 51.3% from Nov. 1 to Nov. 7, the state’s fastest increase yet. In Orange County, the seven-day average of daily positive cases per 100,000 residents increased to 10.8 as of Nov. 22, a stark increase when compared to the average of six daily positive tests Nov. 9.

Due to these rising cases, Chapman President Daniele Struppa announced in a Nov. 16 email that most classes at the Orange and Rinker campuses will return to online instruction beginning on Nov. 17. Although the Rinker campus was the first to hold classes in person, most classes will return online, with the exception of some skills labs that will proceed on campus in small groups, according to Ron Jordan, Dean of the School of Pharmacy.

At a county-wide level, Orange County will distribute at-home test kits. Beginning this week, residents in Santa Ana and Anaheim will have access to 11,000 at-home COVID-19 saliva test kits, and by December, the county will have 500,000 test kits to distribute to all Orange County residents.

Newsom also recently enacted a state-wide curfew, which began Nov. 21. The order prohibits non-essential gatherings between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. in purple “widespread” counties, and the order will remain in effect for one month.

While Chapman housing will remain open, campuses will return to a limited onsite presence. Likewise, all faculty will retain access to on-campus resources, but only essential staff and administrators are required to remain working on campus, according to Struppa’s Nov. 16 email. 

“We are fortunate that progress is being made on vaccines showing excellent signs of success,” Struppa wrote. “This, along with our close working relationship with state and local health agencies, is giving us insight into the progress and distribution planning for the upcoming vaccine.”

Struppa followed up with a Nov. 17 email linking a survey of 1,346 Chapman parents that reveals 80% of students are taking classes remotely. In addition, 68% of students reported they are currently living near campus and 43% are interested in moving back if in-person classes resume in the spring.

Jerika Lam, Chapman’s viral infection specialist, attributed California’s increase in cases to holiday-affiliated gatherings, the election and a nationwide understatement of COVID-19 and its severity. Lam further estimated that California’s COVID-19 cases are likely to continue rising into the new year, and that the potential vaccine distribution will take a long time to affect the climbing cases, since the fourth phase of clinical trials may not be completed until the end of 2021.

“With Thanksgiving and Christmas soon, I would not be surprised to see a continued upward trend,” Lam said. “It’s hard to control human behavior, especially in the people that still don’t get it.”